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We found that satellite retrieved soil moisture has large uncertainty, with uncertainty caused by the algorithm being closely related to the satellite soil moisture quality. The information provided by the two main inputs is mainly redundant. Such redundant components and synergy components provided by two main inputs to the satellite soil moisture are related to how the satellite algorithm performs. The satellite remote sensing algorithms may be improved by performing such analysis.
In this note, a new method (RAT) is proposed to assess the robustness of hydrological models. The RAT method is particularly interesting because it does not require multiple calibrations (it is therefore applicable to uncalibrated models), and it can be used to determine whether a hydrological model may be safely used for climate change impact studies. Success at the robustness assessment test is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition of model robustness.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study investigates the use of hydrometeorological sensors to reconstruct variations in internal vegetation water content of corn, and relates these variations to the sub-daily behaviour of polarimetric L-band backscatter. The results show significant sensitivity of backscatter to the daily cycles of vegetation water content and dew, particularly on dry days and for vertical and cross-polarizations, which demonstrates the potential for using radar for studies on vegetation water dynamics.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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River flow data is often provided as mean daily flow (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flow (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDFs instead of IPFs and identify means to predict IPFs when only MDF data is available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
In this study, daily observations are assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to update the performance of modeling and improve the flood inundation mapping skill. Results demonstrate that integrating data assimilation with a hydrodynamic model improves the performance of flood simulation and provides more reliable inundation maps. A flowchart provides the overall steps for applying this framework in practice and forecasting probabilistic flood maps before the onset of upcoming floods.
The effect of soluble reduced iron, Fe(II), on fluorescence data (excitation–emission matrix spectra parsed using parallel factor analysis) is difficult to quantitatively assign. We added varying quantities of Fe(II) into groundwater from an anaerobic aquifer. We showed that the overall fluorescence intensity decreased nonlinearly as Fe(II) increased from 1 to 306 mg L-1 but that the parallel factor analysis component distribution was relatively insensitive to Fe(II) concentration.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We propose a simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow for producing hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations. This innovative approach preserves trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, allows the implementation of modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and supports the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources.
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In this work we introduce a methodology for devising reliable high streamflow future scenarios from climate change simulations. The calibration of a hydrological model is carried out maximizing the probability that the modeled and observed high flow extremes belong to the same statistical population. The application to the Adige river catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) showed that this procedure produces reliable quantiles of the annual maximum streamflow to be used in assessment studies.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We assessed the effect of catchment topographic slopes on the nitrate export dynamics in terms of the concentration level and its seasonal variability using a coupled surface-subsurface model. We identified a threshold-like three-class relation between young streamflow fraction and slope, with distinct mechanical explanations for each class. We emphasized that it can be misleading to assume a straightforward monotonous relationship between any catchment characteristics and young water fraction.
Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Leah Amber Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Abebe Demissie Chukalla, Marloes L. Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, Gerardo van Halsema, Evaristo Mubaya, Esperança Muchanga, Nadja den Besten, and Poolad Karimi
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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New techniques to monitor performance of irrigation schemes is vital to improve land and water productivity. We developed a framework and applied the remotely-sensed FAO WaPOR dataset to assess uniformity, equity, adequacy, and land and water productivity at Xinavane sugarcane estate, segmented by three irrigation method. The developed performance assessment framework and the Python script in Jupyter Notebooks can serve broadened such analysis in different agro-climatic regions.
We proposed a test statistic feature importance method to quantify the importance of predictor variables for random-forest-like models. The proposed method does not rely on any performance measures to evaluate variable rankings, which can thus result in unbiased variable rankings. The resulting variable rankings based on the proposed method could help random forest achieve its optimum predictive accuracy.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Weather and climate models need to represent the water cycle on land in order to provide accurate estimates of moisture and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Infiltration of water into the soil is often modeled with an equation describing water transport in porous media. Here, we point out some challenges arising in the numerical solution of this equation and show the consequences for the representation of the water cycle in modern weather and climate models.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study presents a probabilistic model able to reproduce the spatial patterns of rainfall on tropical islands with complex topography. It sheds new light on rainfall variability at the island scale, and explores the links between rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation. The proposed model has been tested on two islands of the tropical Pacific, and demonstrates good skills in simulating both site specific and island scale rain behavior.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Assimilation of remotely sensed data into a land surface model to improve the spatiotemporal estimation of soil moisture across South Asia exhibits potential. Satellite retrieval assimilation corrects biases that are generated due to unmodeled hydrologic phenomenon, i.e., irrigation. The improvements in fine-scale, modeled soil moisture estimates by assimilating coarse-scale retrievals indicates the utility of the described methodology for data scarce regions.
Deforestation affects how catchments store and release water. Here we found that deforestation in the study catchment led to a 20 % increase in mean runoff, while reducing the vegetation-accessible water storage from about 258 to 101 mm. As a consequence, fractions of young water in the stream increased by up to 25 % during wet periods. This implies that water and solutes are more rapidly routed to the stream, which can, after contamination, lead to increased contaminant peak concentrations.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Structural changes (cover and height of vegetation plus tree canopy characteristics) to forests during regeneration on degraded land affect how water is partitioned between streamflow, groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. Partitioning most strongly deviates from baseline conditions during earlier stages of regeneration with dense forest, while recovery may be possible as the forest matures and opens out. This has consequences for informing sustainable landscape restoration strategies.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This research not only provides insights into the river-aquifer interactions over the past 30 years but also serves as a benchmark study for predicting their interactions under future climate scenarios. The results show that the lowland catchments are groundwater-dominated and the lowland hydrological system from precipitation impulse to baseflow response is a very fast response system. This study also provides an option to assess baseflow from the groundwater flow (level) persepctive.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Base on the 222Rn mass-balance model, the LGD rate and the loads of LGD-derived nutrients in the west was significantly larger than in the east. The factor determining the higher LGD rates is the permeability of the porous aquifer connected with the lake, which could be enlarged by some preferential pathways. The groundwater around the west EDL is enriched in geogenic nutrients, which further results in that the loads of LGD-derived nutrients generally exceeded.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The water footprint (WF) is an accepted tool, but it excludes irrigation supply chains. We present a conceptual framework distinguishing between traditional net WFs and proposed gross WFs (with irrigation supply chain related blue WFs and green WFs of weeds). In the Pakistani part of the Indus basin the gross blue WF is 1.6 times the net blue WF showing that WFs are underestimated if supply chains are neglected. More water efficient agriculture should take these supply chain losses into account.
Root water uptake is an important process in the terrestrial water cycle. How this process depends on soil water content, root distributions, and root properties is a soil–root hydraulic problem. We compare different approaches to implementing root hydraulics in macroscopic soil water flow and land surface models.
This work studies the reduction of wave height and the drag effect by the vegetation in wetlands. Local wave height through the vegetated area is well described by the reciprocal function and exponential function. New relations have been derived by comparing these two methods and verified by 99 cases, building a bridge between different methods to better understand the drag effect.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Travel time distribution provides fundamental information on water circulation and subsurface mixing in aquifers. This study develops a multi-fidelity model to overcome limitations of previous methods to estimate time-variant travel time distribution. The multi-fidelity model combines the efficiency of high-fidelity model and accuracy of low-fidelity model. In the model with a low Peclet number and large spatial scale, the multi-fidelity model is a better method than the other numerical methods.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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A comprehensive assessment of snowmelt is missing for China. Trends and variability of snowmelt in China under climate change are investigated using historical precipitation and temperature data (1951–2017) and projections scenarios (2006–2099). The snowmelt and snowmelt runoff ratio show significant spatial and temporal variability in China. The spatial variability of snowmelt changes may lead to regional differences in the impact of snowmelt on water supply.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Causal inference methods aim at detecting causal interactions between variables in a dataset. We study four of these generic methods and ask whether they can detect connected flow paths below the ground. The task is complex because connections seem ubiquitous as the variables react in the same way to meteorological variables. Our results show that, although not entirely reliable, the recent methods reduce the number of potential connections, with some being less prone to errors.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil moisture in footprints extending over hectometres in the horizontal and decimetres in the vertical. This study, however, demonstrates the potential of CRNS to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond isolated footprints. To that end, we analyse data from a unique observational campaign that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors in an area of just 1 km2.
Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Satellite thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing is a useful method for identifying coastal springs in karst aquifers both locally and regionally. The limiting factors include technical limitations, geological and hydrogeological characteristics, environmental and marine conditions, and coastal geomorphology. Also, it can serve as a tool to use for a first screening of the coastal water surface temperature to identify possible thermal anomalies that will help narrow the sampling survey.
Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
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Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature and evaporation over saturated lands. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bioclimates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty in hydrological community.
Using remote sensing and reanalysis data, we examined the relationships between vegetation development and water resource availability in a humid subtropical basin. We found overall increases in total water storage and surface greenness and vegetation production, and the changes were particularly profound in cropland-dominated regions. Correlation analysis implies water availability leads the variations in greenness and production, and irrigation may improve production during dry periods.
Ryan L. Crumley, David F. Hill, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Gabriel J. Wolken, Anthony A. Arendt, Christina M. Aragon, Christopher Cosgrove, and Community Snow Observations Participants
In this study, we use a new snow data set collected by participants in the Community Snow Observations project in coastal Alaska to improve snow depth and snow water equivalence simulations from a snow process model. We validate our simulations with multiple datasets, taking advantage of snow telemetry (SNOTEL), snow depth and snow water equivalence, and remote sensing measurements. Our results demonstrate that assimilating citizen science snow depth measurements can improve model performance.
Mountain pine beetle outbreaks have caused widespread tree mortality. While some research shows that water yield increases after trees are killed, many others document no change or a decrease. The climatic and environmental mechanisms driving hydrologic response to tree mortality are not well understood. We demonstrated that the direction of hydrologic response is a function of multiple factors, so previous studies do not necessarily conflict with each other; they represent different conditions.
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Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
The role of rainfall space–time structure in flood response is an important research issue in urban hydrology. This study contributes to this understanding in small urban watersheds. Combining stochastically based rainfall scenarios with a hydrological model, the results show the complexities of flood response for various return periods, implying the common assumptions of spatially uniform rainfall in urban flood frequency are problematic, even for relatively small basin scales.
The stationary assumption in hydrology has become obsolete because of climate changes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. In this paper, numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified by a hidden Markov model (HMM) are used in a differential split-sample testing framework to assess the robustness of a hydrologic model. We illustrate the method on the Senegal River.
Alyssa J. DeVincentis, Hervé Guillon, Romina Díaz Gómez, Noelle K. Patterson, Francine van den Brandeler, Arthur Koehl, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Laura E. Garza-Díaz, Jennifer Gamez-Rodríguez, Erfan Goharian, and Samuel Sandoval Solis
Latin America and the Caribbean face many water-related stresses which are expected to worsen with climate change. To assess the vulnerability, we reviewed over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the regional landscape. Results reveal that the region’s inherent vulnerability is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on one country (Brazil).
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Whether rainwater uptake can increase water consumption after rainfall pulses requires investigation. Our results indicated differential response of plant water consumption to rainfall uptake. Mixed afforestation enhances these water relationships, and decreases soil water source competition. Our result suggested that plant species or plantation types can enhance rainwater uptake and reduce water competition should be considered for use in water limited region.
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Applying dimensional analysis to the partitioning of water and soil on terrestrial landscapes reveals their dominant environmental controls. We discuss how the dryness index and the storage index affect the long term rainfall partitioning, the key nonlinear control of the dryness index in global datasets of weathering rates, and the existence of new macroscopic relations among average variables in landscape evolution statistics with tantalizing analogies with turbulent fluctuations.
Soil moisture information was shown to be valuable for landslide prediction. Soil moisture was simulated at 133 sites in Switzerland, and the temporal variability was compared to the regional occurrence of landslides. We found that simulated soil moisture is a good predictor for landslides, and that the forecast goodness is similar to using in situ measurements. This encourages the use of models for complementing existing soil moisture monitoring networks for regional landslide early warning.
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A methodology is developed for a new hydraulic characterization of continental hydrological basins. For this purpose, the division of wells into flow stretches with different hydraulic behaviour is made according to the results of the flowmeter, supposing the hypothesis hydraulic head of the deepest flow stretches of the well do not necessarily match the head showed by the overall well.
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Precipitation forecasting has potential uncertainty due to data and model uncertainties. Here, an integrated predictive uncertainty framework is proposed by uncertainty propagation and random sampling. The results indicate an effective predictive uncertainty estimation for precipitation forecasting. The proposed approach fully considers uncertainty sources from predictor and predictand data and models, which has potential for numerous predictive applications.
Leon M. Hermans, Vishal Narain, Remi Kempers, Sharlene L. Gomes, Poulomi Banerjee, Rezaul Hasan, Mashfiqus Salehin, Shah Alam Khan, A.T.M. Zakir Hossain, Kazi Faisal Islam, Sheikh Nazmul Huda, Partha Sarathi Banerjee, Binoy Majumder, Soma Majumder, and Wil A. H. Thissen
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Transdisciplinary water research involves the co-creation of knowledge between various stakeholders, to advance science and resolve complex societal problems. In this paper, we describe challenges and responses to address power and politics as part of transdisciplinary research. This is done based on a project that combined known principles for transdisciplinary research with a negotiated approach, to support groundwater management in peri-urban villages in India and Bangladesh.
Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Accurate daily continental water balance predictions are valuable in monitoring and forecasting water availability and land surface conditions. A simple and robust method was developed for an operational water balance model to constrain model predictions temporally and spatially with satellite soil moisture observations. The improved soil water storage prediction can provide constraints in model forecasts that persist for several weeks.
We found with a scientific paper survey (~ 1000 papers) that 45 % of the papers used rainbow color maps or red–green visualizations. Those rainbow visualizations, although attracting the media's attention, will not be accessible for up to 10 % of people due to color vision deficiency. The rainbow color map distorts and misleads scientific communication. The study gives guidance on how to avoid, improve and trust color and how the flaws of the rainbow color map should be communicated in science.
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Different look-back windows should be explored to obtain the optimal results when using LSTM for rainfall-runoff simulations. Adding the spatial distribution information of rainfall can improve the results of the LSTM model, especially peak discharge. The results of our proposed LSTM+1D CNN on 'n time step output' and 'one time step output' are comparable to those of the LSTM model driven by basin mean rainfall data, and slightly worse than those of spatially distributed rainfall data.
In situ stable water isotope measurements are a recently developed method to measure water movement from the soil through the plant to the atmosphere in high resolution and precision. Here, we present important advantages of the new method in comparison to commonly used measurement methods in an experimental setup. Overall, this method can help to answer research questions such as plant responses to climate change with potentially shifting water availability or temperatures.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Maps of river water stable isotope ratios provide information on flow pathways, and can aid ecological and provenance studies because the isotope values of water that plants and animals use are passed into their tissues. We used a water balance-based mapping method, which represents patterns of surface flow and mixing, and added a correction step using catchment environmental characteristics to map water isotope ratios across all the rivers of New Zealand.
We used a two-step approach with limited sampling effort in existing storm water infrastructure to illustrate the risk of biocide emission in a 2 ha urban area 13 years after construction had ended. First samples at a swale confirmed the overall relevance of biocide pollution. Then we identified sources where biocides were used for film protection and pathways where transformation products were formed. Our results suggest that biocide pollution is a also continuous risk in aging urban areas.
Preprint under review for HESS(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We present a new way to detect snowmelt using daily cycles in streamflow driven by solar radiation. Results show that warmer sites have earlier and more intermittent snowmelt than colder sites, and the timing of early snowmelt events is strongly correlated with the timing of streamflow volume. A space-for-time substitution shows greater sensitivity of streamflow timing to climate change in colder than in warmer places, which is then contrasted with land-surface simulations.
Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Gully headcut erosion is always a difficult issue in soil erosion, which hinders the revelation of gully erosion mechanisms and the establishment of a gully erosion model. This study clarified the spatiotemporal changes in flow properties, energy consumption, and soil loss, confirming that gully head consumed the most of flow energy (78 %) and can contribute 89 % of total soil loss. Critical energy consumption initiating soil erosion of the upstream area, gully head, and gully bed is confirmed.